As Thanksgiving approaches, the U.S. and Canadian box office landscape prepares for what many analysts predict could be a historic holiday weekend. This year, the lineup boasts highly anticipated titles, including the return of Disney’s beloved Polynesian princess, a whimsical tale of witches from Universal, and a grueling saga of vengeance from Paramount. These films are gearing up to create a box office spectacle that may well surpass the pandemic’s constraints, ushering in a much-needed resurgence for theaters struggling to regain footing.
The Thanksgiving weekend kicks off with Disney’s “Moana 2,” expected to generate box office receipts between $120 million and $150 million within its opening five days. Following closely are “Wicked” from Universal and “Gladiator II” from Paramount, both of which are entering their second week in theaters. Industry experts expect that this combination of films, each appealing to diverse demographics, could collectively drive ticket sales beyond $200 million, setting the stage for one of the most lucrative Thanksgiving weekends in history.
This exceptional trio has been dubbed a “perfect storm” of movie releases by Shawn Robbins of Fandango, acknowledging the blend of genres that can cater to family audiences, young adults, and older enthusiasts alike. Historically, Thanksgiving has proven to be an opportune moment for big releases, and the combination of these films may signal a turning point for box offices that have faced challenges in attracting broad audiences during and post-pandemic.
The potential for success this year is notable, especially when reflecting on the pre-pandemic box office performance. Before 2019, Thanksgiving weekends often topped $200 million, with 2018 achieving an impressive tally of $315 million thanks in large part to a powerhouse lineup featuring films like “Ralph Breaks the Internet” and “Creed II.” The subsequent years have seen these figures dwindle, with 2020 being an exception as no major releases occurred during the holiday season due to pandemic restrictions.
The expectation this year stands in stark contrast to recent disappointments. Following Disney’s historical dominance in Thanksgiving releases, their recent animated features have struggled to gain traction. The underwhelming performances of films like “Strange World” and “Wish” further add weight to the importance of “Moana 2,” highlighting the pressure on Disney to reclaim its status as the keeper of animated box office magic during this crucial time.
“Moana 2” arrives timed perfectly after the first installment was declared the top-streamed film for families, displaying a potent mix of nostalgia and fresh narrative suited for a multi-generational audience. Furthermore, the summer release of Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2,” which opened to a remarkable $154.2 million, serves as a testament to the appetite for quality animated content amongst viewers. This precedent heightens the anticipation surrounding “Moana 2,” suggesting that families may flock to theaters once again.
However, it’s essential to scrutinize the broader implications of this upcoming thanksgiving box office. Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, reflects on the importance of this holiday for the industry’s overall health. The fortunes made during Thanksgiving set the tone for the year-end box office peak, ultimately contributing to an annual revenue that the industry hopes will reflect a recovery story following years of hardship.
As we look ahead to this Thanksgiving holiday, the cinematic landscape appears ripe for harvest. This year’s line-up not only embodies a diverse range of storytelling through its juxtaposed themes of adventure, fantasy, and epic drama but also serves as a barometer for the industry’s recovery. If the projections hold true, Hollywood may very well reclaim its footprint in box office history, inspiring confidence for future releases and rekindling the love for theater-going among audiences once more. The implications of this Thanksgiving could echo throughout the entire film industry, shaping the strategies and successes of studios as they critique and adapt to the evolving market dynamics. Whether or not they achieve the anticipated success will remain to be seen, but the excitement surrounding these titles is palpable and could signify a new dawn for cinemas this holiday season.